Climate Change; The Physics, The Hysteria, The Industry of Climate Change,
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary", H.L. Mencken
The role of CO2, H2O and other greenhouse gases have been known for some 180 years and analytically demonstrated
by Prof. Svante Arrhenius in 1896. A minor panic occurred at that time because global temperatures appeared to be decreasing.
Increasing CO2 concentrations, from a baseline of 280 ppm at the historical pre-industrial starting point in 1750, to 420 ppm presently are directly measured.
Since Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth popularized the issue in 2006 from the first IPCC report in 1990, a global
hysteria has gripped many western governments. The premise that the world is "on fire", or will "drown"
or will "die of thirst"" i.e., fires, floods and drought have all been attributed to the risks of anthropogenic climate change rather than of biblical
With certainty, the impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gases raising atmospheric temperatures and acidifying oceans
is well demonstrated physics; the warming mechanism can be demonstrated and calculated by any university engineering or earth sciences student confirming the work of Arrhenius.
On the other hand, the earth has undergone numerous climate-altering events during the last 100,000 years of human presence
aside from those of geological times. The planet, itself, adapts naturally; in comparison, human civilizations have flourished, declined and disappeared
in response to changing climate. It's grossly arrogant of modern humanity to believe that earth's climate should be static for current humanity, in this 21st century.
There is no doubt we can better utilize oil & gas and coal resources. "Green" initiatives are well underway toward developing
reduced carbon emissions economies; however, the goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 Co is whimsical and
appears more to limit economic growth in the West. To achieve a limit of 2 Co, global CO2 emissions must vanish by 2075 and
by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 Co.
Unfortunately, many western politicians have politicized the issue; and, by mandating a rigid ideology, are corralling western democracies
into a precarious predicament of depending on adverse foreign suppliers whose carbon emissions don't even count by WTO rules.
A rational, pragmatic transition to "de-carbonize" the global economy has not been articulated. Rather, taxpayer money, seemingly only in the western
democracies, continues to be directed at "renewables" - with the West appearring, again, to be rushing into irreparable self-harm by jeoparidizing
national security, abandoning their domestic manufacture of essential / strategic goods to foreign regimes and irresponsibly forcing a greatly reduced
standard of living for their citizens.
The issue of climate change / global warming may be the defining issue for mankind in the 21st century.
Since the beginning of history, the story of mankind has been a tale of continuous evolution of isolated hunter-gatherers to the city states of early civilizations
in South America, Africa, Asia and Europe. In the middle of the 18th century Europe, specifically England, initiated the harnessing of water power for
industrial production, later, accelerated by steam power (from coal) and then by oil & gas. The early technologies spread through the Western world,
including North America (which, along with South America had experienced increasing colonization by Europe from the 16th century onwards).
Modern societies were encouraged to use increasing amounts of energy to raise living standards. The earth was considered both source and sink to support
boundless utilization and development of thermal energy. In the mid-19th century, though, scientists began to show curiosity in CO2 levels and
their impact on climate; scientists being scientists, asked a simple question; what happens if CO2 levels change?
Many engineers, among other scientific and technical professions who are schooled in the practical application of physics, have difficulty in
singular focus on anthropogenic driven "climate change" / global warming” as presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. The objections
include practicality of a "global mean temperature" measurement (precision of 0.5 C° mean temperature change; the "hockey-stick" graph),
downplaying the role of glaciation and inter-glacials (we are currently in the Holocene glacial retreat, and most recently the Younger Dryas freeze) and their connection to
changes in the earth’s orbital motions (Milankovich cycles), the impact of super volcanoes, mantle "hot spots", the impact of high frequency electro-magnetic waves
and questions of scientific method and rigor.
It is convenient to leave out context when proclaiming the current trajectory to global disaster due to "climate change"(per the "climate change means disaster" argument); the fact that sea levels have risen by 400 feet [122 metres]
since the end of the last ice age (10,000 years ago), that CO2 is an essential substance to sustain plant life and not a pollutant per say; rather,
its concentration is inconvenient and that civilizations have been impacted globally by multiple climate events throughout the last 100,000 years.
Since engineers and other scientific and technical professions may have equivocal acceptance of the “anthropocentric climate warming” argument,
this equivocation bears some examination (from an engineer’s vantage point).
In this essay, we explore background and developments of global warming and climate change defined by the IPCC reports which are comprehensive but,
in specifics, can be incomprehensible and inaccessible. This essay will have, due to its brevity, shortcomings and we invite readers to pass along your comments to the author.
Helpful comments (those that add value to treatment of the issue, invectives are not necessary) will be incorporated into this essay.
Professor Svante Arrhenius
At the close of the 19th century (1896), Professor Arrhenius published a paper, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground 1.
Carbonic acid was the conventional designation for CO2 at the time. Professor Arrhenius’ findings indicated that both water vapor and carbonic acid i.e., CO2 contributed to atmospheric heating induced by re-radiation of energy from the earth back to Space. This outbound, re-radiated energy was absorbed by molecules of CO2 and H2O causing these molecules to “excite” i.e., incur atomic-scale motion resulting in a temperature increase much like an agricultural green house and hence, colloquially, the “greenhouse” effect and "greenhouse gas" [GHG]. As more molecules present, i.e., their concentration increased, more heating occurred.
To an extent, H2O concentration is considered “fixed”, but nonetheless does vary from desert to ocean tropics; CO2 was historically considered fixed or rather in equilibrium between various producing (e.g., volcanoes, combustion) and removal (e.g., natural sequestration) mechanisms.
The unique result of Arrhenius’ experimentally supported calculations was to calculate a sensitivity in mean earth temperature to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration; varying this concentraton by ± 50% caused a difference in calculated mean temperature of approximately ± 3.8 Cº between 60º and 70º latitude over continental areas and ± 2.9 Cº over ocean areas. (Yes, we mean Cº since this is a difference in temperature, not the value of temperature on the Celsius scale)
A routine question for 3rd year university engineering students is to duplicate Arrhenius’ work but using modern concepts of heat transfer physics. These include the radiative heat transfer law, use of the Stefan Boltzman constant, absorptance and emittance factors associated with atmospheric CO2 and H2O concentrations but without the complexity of Arrhenius’ computational effort. Students are surprised to calculate that the mean temperature of the Earth without the benefit of atmospheric CO2 and H2O is about – 50 ºC and + 15 ºC when the gases are present. A challenging examination question for the students is to calculate the impact of an increase in CO2 et cetera paribus .
Arrhenius based his calculations on a CO2 concentration of 300 ppm ± 150 ppm. Note that CO2 concentration in 1890 was about 290 ppm (by ice core determination).
As of 2018, CO2 concentration is measured at 409 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A complication is the presence of additional gases which behave like CO2, designated CO2 equivalents.
Arrhenius did not account for these in 1896. CH4, N2O and halocarbons (CFC, HCFC, etc.) have greater GHG intensity so that CO2 and CO2,e are measured and referenced.
The above illustrates the actual, long-established physical science grounded in the principles of radiative heat transfer.
These techniques are used in the design of industrial heat transfer equipment used in refineries, petrochemical plants, power generation plants, HRSG & OTSG equipment and
similar systems relying on the utitilization of H2O and CO2 containing gas streams. There is certainty in the physics; there will be some uncertainty,
though in defining the inputs for a terrestrial system (e.g., cloud & snow cover, humidity, ocean currents). Industrial systems are well instrumented and well researched to provide better certainty in calculation.
The Arrhenius calculations are necessarily not "exact" as indicated in Arrhenius' paper reflective of the assumptions, simplifications and data quality available at the time and impact accuracy and precision.
Arrhenius did not have a digital computer in 1896 nor the sensitive measuring equipment and techniques of the present so his calculations are likely conservative (as they should be)!
Panic of 1896
Professor Arrhenius’ results caused a panic when the general population interpreted his results as indicating there could be insufficient CO2 generation to sustain the mild temperatures
then being experienced and a return to Little Ice Age conditions was possible. As recently as the IPCC TAR, Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions showed declining temperatures to the
end of the 19th century (Fig 2.20).
As late as the 1950’s, there were popular reports concerning a return of Ice Age conditions; some readers may recall considering a move to Central America to make their escape.
However, what did occur was that in 1958, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) installed the Mauna Loa Observatory to monitor atmospheric data.
The NOAA measured CO2 concentrations of 315 ppm. The increase in CO2 concentration from the baseline of 290 ppm in 1890 to 315 ppm in 1958 was small and inconsequential. However, since then it has shown a remarkable acceleration to 409 ppm in 2018. According to the IPCC, this trajectory indicates an increase in global mean temperature by 1.5 Cº between 2030 and 2052. Note that this is about ½ of the rise calculated by Arrhenius in 1896, a remarkable testimony to his efforts!
Per the IPCC Special Report 1.5 ºC (2018), “anthropogenic emissions (including greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors) up to the present are unlikely to cause further warming of more than 0.5 C° over the next two to three decades or on a century time scale” [paragraph A.2.1, p 7].
The Panic of COP24
The global warming discussion has received new urgency at the Conference of the Parties, COP24 concluded in Katowice, Poland in December 2018. Climate scientists have raised alarm that the earth is headed to a warming of 3 C° by the end of this century as total CO2 equivalent emissions continue to actually trend upward. That outrage is directed against the USA and the West for failing to reduce their emissions sufficiently quickly to avoid terrestrial disaster. While not clear as to the specifics of the possible disaster we have been assured that a 3 C° rise is a global catastrophe.
The reaction from environmentalists and the general public is approaching hysterical levels as evidenced by student groups launching lawsuits against their governments and with developing and emerging economies suggesting developed nations owe billions and trillions in environmental damages and funding assistance for mitigation. At the COP24, poorer nations vulnerable to climate change demanded clarity on how an already agreed $100 billion a year of climate damage mitigation financing by 2020 will be provided, and on efforts to build on that amount further from the end of the decade.
Another example of this hysteria and politicization involves a court case launched by the State of Massachusetts against ExxonMobil claiming that it concealed its knowlede of the role fossil fuels play in climate change. This is astonishing in that many engineering, physics, chemistry and climate science students, graduates and discipline professionals have studied the relationship of atmospheric CO2 emissions and H2O content to atmospheric warming since Arrhenius' work in 1896; these effects are well known and published in the technical literature since then. Through the following decades, hundreds of thousands, more likely several million people at any time in the USA alone would have known this relationship .
Eminent personalities have also taken up the cause; in Globalization and Its Discontents; Revisited Nobel laureate economics theorist Joseph E. Stiglitz opines on the injustices between developed and developing nations with respect to climate change; ” . . .with most of the increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases which give rise to it coming from the advanced countries, and most of the costs being borne by the developing countries”. Note that according to the WTO [i.e., the World Trade Organization] China is a ”developing nation”.
There is resistance in the West, particularly from the USA, to the science of global warming and refusal to curtail or modify their economies to reduce carbon emissions. Those who question the climate science are branded “deniers” deserving of that special place in hell reserved for those who question “accepted” conventions and "settled" science (note that "settled" science is an oxymoron). For various men and women in history such as Hypatia, Copernicus, Giordino Bruno, Galileo and others through the centuries, a price was paid for not accepting "settled" science.
As demonstrated, the physics and science of global warming are consistent; whether a precise and accurate relationship between CO2,e and temperature can be calculated is problematic on account of the complexities not accounted for in Arrhenius' simplified approach. As Arrhenius described, assumptions were required. Presumably, the IPCC deals with these in their computer models which consequently makes verification and validation problematic for the public. In a way, the IPCC determinations seem to be optimistic as temperature increases should be greater as we pave (via roads and structures) the earth. What portion do we attribute to inter-glacial effects, orbital forcing or other unique events? What apportionment is due the 1st law of thermodynamics?
However,the impact of a 1.5 C°, 2.0 C° or 3.0 C° rise, attributable to increased CO2 emissions, on terrestrial systems is even less transparent and undemonstrated;
how much polar ice is actually melting compared to the expected volumes (what is the proportional increase in sealevel rise as temperature increases, ice volume is lost and CO2,
CO2,e increases)? How much glacial ice is melting from interglacial effects compared to anthropogenic causes? Incomplete understanding of external forcing has not been
incorporated into the short term climate change model. Are all weather events simply and conveniently assigned to "climate change"? Given that the mainstream press declares we are on the verge of
climate catastrophe, reflection on the once-predicted Y2K catastrophe begs that a more complete (mathematically tractable) assessment be provided to the public.
COP19 [Warsaw, 2013] apparently has established or intends to establish (UN website is not clear on progress) an assessment mechanism for loss and damage suffered by developing countries.
The mechanism is to consider both immediate extreme and slow-onset events. The popular tendency has been to anecdotally assign many climate events to climate change;
droughts, fires, ice-storms, hurricanes, the polar vortex and rising sea levels are a few of these adverse events and for which compensation is being sought for impacted developing countries.
Global Warming: Who's the Grandfather of Climate Science?
Dr Wallace Smith Broeker of Columbia University is credited with popularizing the term global warming by publishing a paper in 1975 identifying that the exponential rise in atmospheric CO2 would impact global temperatures. Along with other climate related discoveries, he was awarded the National Medal of Science in 1996 and an Environmental achievement prize in 2002, both by US President Bill Clinton.
It is unfortunate that Broeker did not cite the work of Arrhenius, Fourier, Tyndail, Langley and other researchers in his paper so as to share the moniker. Fourier's work in 1825 first identified the notion of a "greenhouse gas" but Arrhenius determined the effect of CO2 and H2O concentrations on warming of the atmosphere as well as describing other forcings consistent with the UN IPCC treatment almost 100 years later. Hence, Arrhenius should be given the accolade of "grandfather of global climate warming science".
The Present Path Forward
The utilization of hydrocarbon fuels by combustion for the past 250 years has meant extraordinary progress for humanity; this technology brought humanity from isolated communities to the formation of nation-state communities (countries) and to our current global village. There will always be a need for carbon based commodities (organic composites, synthetics, petrochemicals). If CO2 emissions were not the cause of our "climate change" problem, the "problem" would be securing future hydrocarbon supplies.
The conventional paths forward to deal with "climate change" that are being continually presented at the various COP include multiple prescriptions, and are primarily directed to Western nations;
• to tax their populations on ”carbon pollution”
• to employ cap & trade schemes
• to reduce GHG through alternate carbon based fuels (e.g., ethanol)
• to eliminate use of halocarbon materials
• to de-industrialize and migrate to a service oriented economy
• to compensate and fund harm reduction efforts in developing and least-developed nations
• to switch to ”renewables” i.e., wind, solar, hydrogen, geothermal
• to sequester emitted and atmospheric CO2 i.e., carbon capture & storage
The least preferred of these methods are those that require populations to endure another tax; carbon taxes provide a tantalizing revenue source for too many governments.
Governments uniformly do not provide taxpayers with value for their taxes or provide measures of effectiveness.
Revenue streams of billions and trillions of dollars, as suggested by Canada's Environment Minister and the "climate change / global warming" industry are too tempting
for spendthrift governments who indulge themselves in vote buying or self-enrichment expenditure mechanisms such as subsidies, grants, programs and projects that enrich the insider few at the expense of the many.
Curtailment and substitution of hydrocarbons is appealing and in the West reduction is occurring as renewables become competitive with conventional energy sources. Coal fired plants are being prematurely shut down, some being switched to less CO2 emitting natural gas and co-generation (85% efficiency vs 45% for conventional thermal power).
In Canada, oil pipelines, in a radical move, are being obstructed and cancelled resulting in economic shock to regional and federal economies. ”Enlightened” politicians are strutting on the world stage garnering praise from extreme environmental groups for their leadership in kneecapping their national economies while citizens are suing their governments in the cause of preventing climate change. A rather compelling graph was recently published showing the exponential growth in carbon emissions from ”major developing countries” compared to the gradual decline in emissions from the Western developed countries. The trajectory of the data illustrates that the West is, in actuality, de-carbonizing its economies. In contrast, the increasing trajectory of ”developing countries” is accepted on the premise that they need” to catch up to the developed countries”. A reasonable response arises; is climate change / global warming a problem or not? Is rigid ideology driving ill-considered actions of Western governments, special interests and predatory behavior at the expense of greater public good?
Recent events also suggest that issues of national security nor human rights have not been factored into CO2 emissions reductions plans. Both are grave errors in judgement by political "leaders".
The UN 2018 Gap report
Figure 1 (UN Figure 2.3) below reveals that the fastest growing CO2 emitters are China and India. Both the USA and the European Union [EU] are reducing their emissions; the EU beginning in the late 1980's and the USA beginning to decline coincident with the financial crisis of 2008. In both of these Western economies, emissions are declining and use of renewable energy is increasing in comparison to the net impact of emissions from the balance of the world. Figure 2 shows that the EU is the most effective user of hydrocarbons in producing wealth. The figure vividly shows the impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on Japan in 2011 and the progress of the USA and Canada in using hydrocarbon resources. Both China and India are well behind although improving utilization at the same rate as the USA. Canada is inconsistent but that may be attributable to the release of CO2 by extensive periodic fires in its vast forests.
While China is known to be increasing energy sourcing from renewables, it is also increasing its coal use and cement production to meets its expanding economic needs. India is also seen to be increasing emissions at a proportional rate. China maintains a claim to "developing country" status while India is similarly so considered. Note that the WTO does not assign status, individual countries self-declare their status. Other countries may challenge this declaration, but none has done so.
Figure 1 CO2 Emmissions Contributions
Figure 2 Economic Return
The European Union, Japan, the USA and Canada have been doing the heaving lifting of reducing CO2 emissions while continuing to grow their economies. The impact of the Fukushima disaster is evident on Japan's recent performance.
The most recent news is that US electrical power generation has met the amount generated by coal; the trajectory has been established.
Figure 3 illustrates clearly that US producers understand, are listening and responding similar to the European Union, albeit slightly behind the EU. And, no carbon taxes!
Figure 3 Renewables beat Coal
Figure 4 CO2 vs Population
In 1890, the baseline CO2 concentration was 290 ppm while world population was 1.65 billion. By 1960, the global population had increased to 3 billion (80% increase) while the atmospheric CO2 concentration had increased to 316 ppm (9% increase). Since 1890, global population has increased to 7.8 billion (372% increase) while CO2 concentration has increased to 416 ppm (43% increase). Per capita energy intensity in the West is high, but increasing populations and energy intensity by developing countries is reflected in the trends.
Can reduced fuel use for transportation reduce carbon emissions? How do "renewables" provide the water, food, living space and shelter, clothing, vehicles and dozens of other consumer items for this continuing population growth; perhaps, the problem is bigger than "climate change"? When do rising CO2 emissions begin to affect human and animal life (hint: 1,000 ppm)?
It is unfortunate that the media and Western media, in particular, have not discussed these emissions patterns with comparable enthusiasm to the shrill reporting of the "global doom" scenarios of an "earth on fire", "extinction", "massive coastal flooding" awaiting us on the pretext that the West persists in its esurient use of hydrocarbons.
It is understandable that developing nations wish to avoid environmental calamity and improve incomes and living standards for their populations. But governments have not been forthright with their domestic populations in acknowledging that the earth's resources are limited and cannot sustain the global population at a comparable living standard to the West; to do so would require the resources of some four (4) earths (but, we only have one). Pressuring the West to defacto de-industrialize to avert climate change and obtain a global parity and sustainability is insiduous. A more transparent and comprehensive discussion to achieve this is needed rather than the apparent stealth strategy currently in play. Recent protests in France, western Canada and the USA are beginning as these populations grasp the trajectories and agenda.
A Rational Path Forward
The 2008 financial crisis was sparked in the USA due to sub-prime lending by a number of systemically important financial institutions; the lack of regulatory oversight by those charged with this oversight, namely the US Federal Reserve, on the presumption that markets are self-correcting, sufficiently sophisticated, and resilient let a mindset of greed and callousness export to Iceland, Ireland, Scotland, Spain, Germany and others who had placed faith in the regulatory environment and the gospel of the Fed, the US Treasury, the SEC and complementary regulatory bodies. The lesson; you can’t trust nonsense even if dressed in an Armani suit. When crisis arrived, taxpayers in the USA and the EU picked up the tab with a number of EU financial institutions still in jeopardy 15 years out. Sadly, Western media was anemic in bringing and keeping the story in the public view.
What has the 2008 financial crisis to do with global warming? The crisis occurred because those who had the power influenced their governments to rescind the lessons of history, repealing the Glass – Steagall Act of 1933 which fire-walled retail and investment banks. Deregulation of Savings & Loan banks in the 1980's led to a crisis which cost the American taxpayer over $180B and was a dress rehearsal and prelude to the sub-prime free-for-all leading to 2008. The ensuing result is increasing inequality in wealth and the further erosion of responsible governments, again a negative trajectory for middle income taxpayers. Those institutions that were mandated to protect the taxpayer and consumer either did not have the will and / nor the competence to do right for their constituents.
Globalization is a stark lesson to this thesis. Referring to Stiglitz, he very gracefully opines that globalization has been mismanaged by those who should know better (because of their power, their office, their supposed competence). But he is unequivocal in stating that globalization is off-the-rails because of multi-national corporations who have written the rules that allows them to take advantage of the lowest global labor costs to yield increased margins. These lowest global labor costs (e.g.,$ 0.35 / hr in Bangladesh, $25 / day in Mexico, etc.) amount to 21st century serfdom in most of the developing countries. Many economists will say that globalization has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of the extreme poverty of living on $1 / day because earnings now are $2 / day but . . . $2 / day still leaves the recipient in poverty.
How does this apply to global warming? Do we really want to leave it to the same politicians who gave us the financial crisis and globalization? Globalization rules were written by multi-national corporations who do not have allegiance to any domestic populations, but only to grossly overpaid executives and institutional shareholders.
Firstly then, we need a leadership (government, business, public) that represents and stewards to all of society, not only privileged special interests (this includes the environment zealots and corporate self-interests). Recently, the rigid
drive to net-zero has shown complete disregard of national security concerns.
Secondly, a candid discussion with the public on the options to contribute to mitigation of global warming; we all want to be part of
pragmatic and meaningful solutions. While global warming is a possibility consistent with the physics (of radiative heat transfer),
it is not a completed discussion; other effects of higher CO2 and equivalents are problematic in themselves (such as ocean acidification,
coral bleaching). Deforestation, loss of natural habitat and wildlife, and over-population (and additional issues) all need to be part of
the larger discussion and comprehensive stewardship of the earth; plastic pollution of the world's oceans may prove to be the single most damaging
contributor to the sixth extinction level event.
Canada is at a signficant disadvantage with renewable energy sources similar to the situation of the EU, Japan and Korea. We are in upper northern latitudes that receive less effective solar irradiance. Canada's and the global potential for wind and solar energy is limited. Consider the graph at lower left, Figure 5. The potential power from wind is approximatley 0.2 TW.
75% of the general population is not aware that oil & gas are used for more than road, rail, air transportation and building heating. Oil & gas feedstocks are used to manufacture thousands of secondary products essential to modern living; without oil, toss your smartphone and personal computer, among many other essential products. Approximately 25% to 40% of a barrel of oil are used as feedstock for the production of chemicals, plastics and synthetic materials used in fertilizers, clothing, food & consumer products, high tech materials (contact lenses!) & composites, paints & dyes, and much more. Without these, modern society would need to revert to a world comparable to the 1880's. Even wind and solar power generation would be jeopardized by lack of essential components produced from oil & gas feedstocks. Withdrawing oil & gas from manufacturing of secondary products would impose severe demand on terrestial sources of alternate raw materials.
Curtailing pipeline construction and operations in Canada when oil & gas are essential for modern living, depriving Canada of oil & gas markets undermines national economic health and national security, and
deprives Canada of trade opportunities, does not help developing countries, and weakens Canada politically, militarily, economically.
Canada’s contribution to global CO2 and equivalent emissions is 722 Mt (2015); this represents about 1.6% of global emissions.
Hydrocarbon based energy consumption is predicted to increase for the foreseeable future as developing states strive for improved standards of living, as their populations increase, and as
air & cruise travel and ocean transport increase.
Canada's pipelines can be built simultaneously as our domestic population embraces technology to decrease the domestic carbon footprint (and not shut-in our resources or pay into the money pit of carbon taxes).
With the rapidly declining cost of renewable energies and emission reductions opportunities through technology, substantial total CO2 emissions reductions can be made in those areas where oil & gas is utilized at low value, such as personal road transportation. Figure 2 illustrates that Canada is on a nominally positive trajectory;
the impact of forest fires does impact Canada's progress periodically.
Canada's GHG Paris Agreement (2015) CO2 reduction goal is to be 30% below 2015 emissions by 2030. Canada's emission inventory was 722 Mt in 2015. Therefore, the 2030 goal is 505 Mt by 2030 or a reduction of 217 Mt. In review of the sources of CO2 emissions, three high potential opportunities are in road transportation (158.5 Mt), venting & flaring (12.3 Mt) and biomass (55.5 Mt) for a total of 226.6 Mt. Road transportation by burning of hydrocarbons is outdated, venting and flaring are a needless and lazy way to manage excess hydrocarbons. Of course, this full reduction potential will not be immediately achieved but Canada's National Inventory Report does provide a comprehensive list of opportunities to identify additional candidates.
Global energy consumption is estimated to be 18 TW (Figure 5), energy available via solar irradiance is 3 orders of magnitude greater (i.e., 18,000 TW);
solar energy is a viable source of energy for a large portion of humanities energy needs. The costs of renewables has decreased to where they are
competitive with hydrocarbons for energy supply (Figure 3). Figure 6 reveals that the ideal location for many solar energy "farms" is among some of the
least developed nations on earth (Africa) and less developed (South America, southern Europe, India).
The benefits and synergies are obvious; development, employment, standard of living improvements in "high solar" countries.
Focus can then shift to more dire issues.
To implement this progressive initiative, the kind of leadership, organization, mobilization, and commitment as displayed for the
Apollo moon landing program led by the USA in the 1960's is needed. Of course, there is much more required but carbon taxes, cap & trade and damage
settlements are money transfer schemes of dubious efficacy (most countries have corrupt governments) which will leave Western economies weakened and
susceptible to civil unrest.
Investment and infrastructure development opportunities seem to be literally staring one in the face (Figure 6, again).
Three key technologies are needed:
• increasing solar to electrical energy conversion efficiency (presently ~ 20%)
• high voltage long distance electrical transmission (intra & intercontinental transmission)
• central & local storage technologies (e.g., e-vehicle batteries)
As an example, Volkswagen is committing €80 billion to develop electric vehicles to be in showrooms by 2020 with final development of combustion engines by 2026 and mass production curtailing thereafter. It targets 1 million e-vehicle sales in 2021, and to become the global ev market leader by 2025 with 60% of vehicles sold in Europe to be e-vehicles by 2030.
The target price for mass produced e-vehicles is €25,000 / CDN $45,000 (ID.4 model). However, recently the cost of after market batteries for the Nissan Leaf, for example, has ranged from $8,000 to $32,000 with almost all dealers not knowing how to do the replacement and many not knowing how to source the replacement. This looks to be another scandal in the making! Still unanswered, is what to do with spent batteries. In addition,
from where will the large amounts of lithium to be sourced and who will control this commodity and other rare-earth minerals?
Major strategies to tackle climate change / sustainability
• limit population growth
• close the consumption cycle
• restore the environment / biosphere; reduce / halt pollution of air, water, land
• reduce energy wastage; open burning of hydrocarbons, excessive illumination
• halt deforestation, implement reforestation
• live smaller, reduce demands on the planet
• rational transition to renewables
• development of advanced energy sources (MHD, fusion)
Carbon Taxes ?
For western governments, carbon taxes and cap & trade schemes are being promoted. Taxing C02 emissions at USD $20 / tonne C02 and rising to USD $100 by 2030 as being promoted by the OECD will prove irresistible to governments whether pocketing all or some of those revenues. The economic theory states that a carbon tax will drive business and consumers to alter their behavior towards de-carbonizing the economy. Carbon tax schemes are also open ended.
Taxing at $20 / tonne C02 will have the potential of raising $20 B and 5x that amount at $100 / tonne yearly. Some economists suggest $100 / tonne is only the tipping point for modifying consumer behavior and $400 / tonne is needed to have significant impact! This Canadian federal carbon levy (subject to 5% GST, as well) will be recycled back to households with incomes below a threshold resulting in one-half to two-thirds of households receiving a net benefit (perhaps up to $850 per year). In essence, the government plans to operate a revenue re-distribution scheme. How this translates into reducing C02 emissions is difficult to follow; wealthier households will be annoyed at the net cost (which will remain affordable, in the short term) and less-wealthy households will have no reason to object (free money!). A carbon levy / tax masks politicization of the "climate change crisis". Very obviously, the majority of households will be appreciative at the ballot box but carbon levies / taxes do not encourage reduction of carbon emitting activities for that majority!
A more practical and effective mechanism to reduce C02 emmissions, would be to allow households to deduct purchases of systems using renewable technologies. A capital cost allowance (CCA) for solar energy systems, hybrid and e-vehicle purchases over a 3 to 5 year period would be very effective in promoting technology adaptation. Businesses already have this opportunity in the Canadian tax code. A CCA for households would address the more wasteful uses of hydrocarbons while maintaining vital and strategic petrochemical and hydrocarbon processing industries (because we need those industries!). As prices drop for these renewable systems, they become affordable for more households and accelerate the transition from wasteful use of hydrocarbons to value-added use with concurrent reduction in C02 emissions. Of course, the major disadvantage of a household taxpayer CCA provision is that it denies governments access to vote buying.
Figure 5 Energy Sourcing & Consumption
Figure 6 Global Solar Irradiance
Environmental Hypocrisy and Environmental Industrialization
A question seldom asked by the public is from where are renewable technologies derived and how clean is it? For wind turbines, it takes steel,
fibreglass, plastic and non-ferritic metals. Presently, these materials are produced from basic raw material commodities; sand, hydrocarbons, mined minerals. A global shortage of sand is being driven by global urban development; the damage to river systems from unregulated sand recovery is largely ignored. Plastics are sourced from hydrocarbons .
For batteries, basic materials are graphite, lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt and . . . lots of water. Most lithium production comes from Australia, the "lithium triangle" of Chile, Bolivia and Argentia, and China. In the Chilean salt flats of Salar Atacama, lithium "water-mined" extraction consumes some 1.5 million liters of water per metric ton of lithium carbonate and poses a threat to water supplies for local populations of fauna, flora and human life. A single mine uses drying pools of up to 44 square miles to concentrate the lithium salts.
The bulk of global cobalt mining is from the Democratic Republic of Congo with about 20% of Congolese production from euphemistically described "artisanal" mines. That's when a mine hole of 1 meter square is dug and freelance "miners" descend 45 meters to retrieve cobalt deposits. Inhalation of toxic dust of cobalt and other heavy metals is made without benefit of any type of mask. At point of sale, these miners risk being cheated by buyers using fraudulent assaying which keep miners at a sustenance level of existence.
Purchasing an e-vehicle should assuage no one's conscience.
The hyper focus on climate change misdirects from the massive environmental damage taking place in the shadow of the climate change marquee; the collapse of global biodiversity and extinction of fauna and flora; massive deforestation for mining and industrial agriculture; the expansion of monoculture for palm oil production, coffee beans, bananas; the despoiling of the oceans by plastic, chemical and nuclear pollution; the loss of landscapes to windmills and solar panels; the damage to land and sea from mercury, other heavy metal contamination and chemicals; the damage to marine eco-systems due to ocean floor mining. In short, while climate change is the cover story and the oxymoron of "sustainable development" excuses continuing harmful practices, the losses of multiple planetary systems carries on unabated and hidden in plain view.
The reason this blight continues is that climate change has caught the keen attention of eco-capitalists and presents opportunity to replay 19th century industrialization all over, again. Hedge funds and capital investment firms are salivating; just ask Ontarions how the "green revolution" left them with unaffordable electricity (due to 20% returns to "investors"). Trillions are being pledged by governments to build "green" economies consisting of superficial "renewables" but, which will still require the muscle of oil, gas and coal to provide backup supply and the raw materials underpinning modern economies.
In short, we are being scammed by a sophisticated green-industrial complex "Music Man".
Unfortunately, economic "growth" and the "fight against climate change" remain the pre-occupation driving big-business and government decision making
(e.g., "we can grow ourselves out of deficits and debt", "build back better", "build back green").
So after all the above, let's summarize;
• the physics of greenhouse gas warming is well known for over a century, an engineering student can explain it
• anthropogenic atmospheric warming is an outcome of increased CO2, it’s demonstrated physics
• climate changes naturally but is also subject to human impact e.g., CO2, CH4 emissions
• alternate technologies to remove CO2 from the environment need to be developed
• alternative “green energies” have a damaging environmental impact that are not being accounted
• an immediate simple cessation to the use of hydrocarbons is not rational
• hydrocarbon utilization is necessary for the foreseeable future
• technologies to displace hydrocarbons in simple combustion need to be developed
• national security considerations need to be addressed
The planning for phase-out of hydrocarbon as a fuel and replacement by alternative energy sources needs a rational basis rather than the spendthrift, reactionary manner currently conducted solely by Western governments.
A thought-provoking film that connects the many environmental and ecological issues into a coherent narrative of the damage being done to the biosphere is
"Ten Billion (2017)" by Stephen Emmott.
Its main thesis is that there are already too many people on our planet whose demands on the enivironment are not only creating climate change through anthropogenic generated carbon emissions
but also risk the viability of the planet by excessive demands on water, agriculture, mining, energy and the consequent pollution of air, water, and land.
Emmott asserts that there is more than the single climate change tipping point which will drive temperature increases well beyond 2 °C but closer to 6 °C. It is a film well worth watching.
An earlier work which first identified the issues was by the Club of Rome in their seminal work The Limits to Growth" from 1972. Criticized as a "doomsday tome", its extrapolations of "business as usual"
appear to be holding 50 years since first publication. We were told then but, currently, we are in the final generational sprint to disaster; a global population of 9.7 billion by 2050
(we were at 3.8 billion in 1971 and are at 7.9 billion in 2021). This question is being
posed more frequently.
Heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered great attention in the past several years as incontrovertible proof of an accelerated warming planet. However, even NASA and the EPA seem to show data
that historical heat waves
(see Figure 3 there) have been more severe!
The dust bowl
conditions of the 1930's explain the order-of-magnitude increase in the U.S. annual heat wave index in the period from 1895 to 2021. Consider the key point in the EPA discussion that the depletion of soil moisture
from drought inhibited the moderating effects of evaporation (which can be quantified by heat transfer principles). This is readily applicable to today's modern urbanization where streets are paved in asphalt and concrete, buildings are covered in asphalt shingles, tar or metal and rainwater is prevented
from entering the ground over extensive areas. Modern conurbation exaggerates these conditions to create massive "heat islands" preventing the large-scale
evaporative cooling process to moderate near-surface temperatures.
Unfortunately, it appears no one is listening to these inconvenient truths.
1. Arrhenius, Svante,"On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground",
Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, Series 5, Volume 41, London, April 1896, pp.238-275
2.Broecker, Wallace S., "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming ?" Science,
New Series, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460-463
Koonin, Steven E., "Unsettled; What Climate Science Tells Us, What it Doesn't, and Why it Matters",
BenBella Books Inc., Dallas, TX USA
Kunkel, K. 2022. Updated version of Figure 2.3 in: CCSP (U.S. Climate Change Science Program). 2008.
Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3:
Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate
Please feel free to contact the author with your critique or suggestions for adding value to our thesis.